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SHIELD/ATLAS Valuation Methodology — Conservative, Moderate, Aggressive

Version: 2026-06-12 (rev 2 — three-column bridge)
Pairs with: docs/canonical/01_market_sizing_methodology.md
Pitch spine: docs/canonical/00_harvard_foundry_pitch.md

ISS presents three models on one slide. Lead conservative for the ask. Moderate is the credible execution path funders underwrite. Aggressive is milestone-gated platform capture.

Operator line (verbatim):

“We model conservatively until the market decides. The middle column is what we execute toward — SBIR to Phase III, Guard SOP entrenchment, and mentor–protégé distribution. The right column is what the market prices if we become the mandated decision layer.”

Definitions

Term Meaning
Conservative Floor — pre-revenue honesty; SBIR/OTA + pilots only
Moderate Base / plan case — Phase III + multi-state + Guard SOP + OTA; aligns with market-sizing base SOM
Aggressive Upside — ODRA as policy + MPP/prime at scale + STRATFI-class anchors
ARR Annual recurring revenue (ROM for gov SaaS + license bundles)
Enterprise value Illustrative ranges for pitch; not an offer or appraisal

Maps to market-sizing SOM scenarios: Conservative → $15–40M · Moderate → $40–80M · Aggressive → $80–150M+ (5-year company revenue).

Three futures — one slide (canonical)

Conservative (floor) Moderate (base / plan) Aggressive (upside)
Stance What we raise against today What we execute toward What market prices if we win the seam
5-yr revenue $15–40M $40–80M $80–150M+
Year 5 ARR ~$3–8M ~$15–25M ~$50–80M
Year 10 ARR ~$10M ~$50–100M $400M–$1B
Year 10 valuation $80–150M $500M–$1.2B $5–15B
Multiple (Y10) 8–15× 10–12× 10–15×
Unlock SBIR/OTA + pilots Phase III + 2–3 state EOCs + 1 Guard DSCA SOP + OTA $1–10M + MPP delivery ODRA in 3+ states + national program anchors + STRATFI / scale MPP
Pre-seed ask $500K–$1.5M SAFE Same Same — equity buys capture, not R&D
Operator stance Lead here “Our plan if we execute” “If market decides”

Market (all columns): TAM $60–95B · SAM $8–15B · /market-sizing

Why the moderate column answers funders

The conservative → aggressive gap ($150M → $5B) looks like hopium without a bridge. Moderate is the bridge:

Funder question Moderate answer
“Is $10M ARR your ceiling?” No — moderate paths to $50–100M ARR via Phase III + regional Guard/EOC footprint
“Is $10B realistic?” Only in aggressive column — requires mandated layer status, not required for strong exit
“What do you believe?” Conservative until market proves moderate; moderate is the SBIR→Phase III ladder we’re already on
“Why 10× step in valuation?” $50–100M ARR × 10–12× = $500M–$1.2B — standard for defensible gov platform with renewal + displacement moat

Conservative model (floor — lead with this)

5-year revenue: $15–40M

2–3 SBIR Phase I, 1 Phase II, AFWERX Spark, county pilots.

Valuation ladder

Horizon Trigger Enterprise value
Today Live platform, pre-revenue, SBIR pipeline, MPP in progress $3–5M
~Year 1 First paid pilots; ~$300–500K revenue $5–10M
~Year 5 ~$3–8M ARR $25–50M
~Year 10 ~$10M ARR $80–150M

Years 1–3 revenue ROM

Stream Y1 Y2 Y3
SBIR Phase I (2–3) $610–915K $610–915K $610–915K
AFWERX Spark OTA $250K $250K $250K
SBIR Phase II — $2M $2M
STTR $305K $305K $305K
EOC SaaS (early) — $100K $500K
ROM total ~$1.2M ~$3.2M ~$3.6M

Moderate model (base / plan case)

What must be true

  1. SBIR Phase II → Phase III sole-source path on at least one topic (DDIL, C-UAS, or cyber-DDIL).
  2. Guard entrenchment — Texas (or 1–2 states) DSCA SOP references ODRA; 5–10 Guard units on annual license.
  3. Civilian lane — 2–3 state EOC licenses + 50–150 county SaaS customers.
  4. MPP — protégé delivery on prime sub contracts; past performance accumulates.
  5. OTA prototype — $1–10M award (AFWERX Spark → follow-on or Army/ACC open solicitation).

5-year revenue: $40–80M

Matches docs/canonical/01_market_sizing_methodology.md base SOM scenario.

Year 10 ARR build (illustrative)

Lane Moderate penetration ARR
Guard DSCA 8–15 units × $1–1.5M/yr $8–22M
State EOC 3–5 states × $2–4M/yr $6–20M
County/municipal 100–250 × $75–125K/yr $8–31M
DoD programs 1–2 Phase III / OTA × $15–40M/yr $15–80M
Federal civilian 1–2 footprints $10–25M
Stacked Y10 ARR ~$50–100M

Valuation ladder (moderate)

Horizon Trigger Enterprise value
Year 3 $5–8M ARR; Phase II + TMD SOP LOI + first OTA $40–80M
Year 5 $15–25M ARR; Phase III in negotiation; 2 states $150–300M
Year 10 $50–100M ARR; renewal + displacement moat $500M–$1.2B

Aggressive model (upside — milestone-gated)

What must be true

Everything in moderate, plus:

  1. ODRA becomes policy in 3+ states and referenced in federal program SOWs.
  2. MPP/prime distributes ISS layer on $50M+ program vehicles.
  3. STRATFI or equivalent $50–250M bridge award.

Year 10 ARR: $400M–$1B (category winner)

See prior lane build at national scale — 40+ Guard units, 25+ states, 500+ counties, multiple DoD production programs.

Valuation ladder (aggressive)

Horizon Trigger Enterprise value
Year 5 $50–80M ARR or $100M+ program anchor $500M–$1B
Year 10 $400M–$1B ARR; mandated decision layer $5–15B

5-year revenue: $80–150M+

Matches market-sizing upside SOM scenario.

Pre-seed ask (all models)

$500K–$1.5M SAFE — CMMC L1, FedRAMP Tailored path, BD/capture, co-founder hire.

Not for R&D — SBIR/STTR/OTA fund science; equity funds capture and scale.

Revision history

Date Change
2026-06-12 Initial — dual model
2026-06-12 Rev 2 — moderate column added; bridges conservative→aggressive for funder credibility
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