# SHIELD/ATLAS Valuation Methodology — Conservative, Moderate, Aggressive
**Version:** 2026-06-12 (rev 2 — three-column bridge)  
**Pairs with:** `docs/canonical/01_market_sizing_methodology.md`  
**Pitch spine:** `docs/canonical/00_harvard_foundry_pitch.md`

ISS presents **three models** on one slide. **Lead conservative** for the ask. **Moderate** is the credible execution path funders underwrite. **Aggressive** is milestone-gated platform capture.

**Operator line (verbatim):**

> *“We model conservatively until the market decides. The middle column is what we execute toward — SBIR to Phase III, Guard SOP entrenchment, and mentor–protégé distribution. The right column is what the market prices if we become the mandated decision layer.”*

---

## Definitions

| Term | Meaning |
|------|---------|
| **Conservative** | Floor — pre-revenue honesty; SBIR/OTA + pilots only |
| **Moderate** | **Base / plan case** — Phase III + multi-state + Guard SOP + OTA; aligns with market-sizing **base** SOM |
| **Aggressive** | Upside — ODRA as policy + MPP/prime at scale + STRATFI-class anchors |
| **ARR** | Annual recurring revenue (ROM for gov SaaS + license bundles) |
| **Enterprise value** | Illustrative ranges for pitch; not an offer or appraisal |

**Maps to market-sizing SOM scenarios:** Conservative → `$15–40M` · Moderate → `$40–80M` · Aggressive → `$80–150M+` (5-year company revenue).

---

## Three futures — one slide (canonical)

| | **Conservative (floor)** | **Moderate (base / plan)** | **Aggressive (upside)** |
|---|--------------------------|----------------------------|-------------------------|
| **Stance** | What we raise against today | What we **execute toward** | What market prices if we **win the seam** |
| **5-yr revenue** | **$15–40M** | **$40–80M** | **$80–150M+** |
| **Year 5 ARR** | ~$3–8M | ~$15–25M | ~$50–80M |
| **Year 10 ARR** | ~**$10M** | ~**$50–100M** | **$400M–$1B** |
| **Year 10 valuation** | **$80–150M** | **$500M–$1.2B** | **$5–15B** |
| **Multiple (Y10)** | 8–15× | 10–12× | 10–15× |
| **Unlock** | SBIR/OTA + pilots | Phase III + **2–3 state EOCs** + **1 Guard DSCA SOP** + OTA **$1–10M** + MPP delivery | ODRA in **3+ states** + national program anchors + STRATFI / scale MPP |
| **Pre-seed ask** | **$500K–$1.5M SAFE** | Same | Same — equity buys **capture**, not R&D |
| **Operator stance** | **Lead here** | **“Our plan if we execute”** | **“If market decides”** |

**Market (all columns):** TAM **$60–95B** · SAM **$8–15B** · `/market-sizing`

---

## Why the moderate column answers funders

The conservative → aggressive gap ($150M → $5B) looks like hopium without a bridge. **Moderate is the bridge:**

| Funder question | Moderate answer |
|-----------------|-----------------|
| “Is $10M ARR your ceiling?” | No — moderate paths to **$50–100M ARR** via Phase III + regional Guard/EOC footprint |
| “Is $10B realistic?” | Only in aggressive column — requires **mandated layer** status, not required for strong exit |
| “What do you believe?” | *Conservative until market proves moderate; moderate is the SBIR→Phase III ladder we’re already on* |
| “Why 10× step in valuation?” | **$50–100M ARR × 10–12× = $500M–$1.2B** — standard for defensible gov platform with renewal + displacement moat |

---

## Conservative model (floor — lead with this)

### 5-year revenue: **$15–40M**

2–3 SBIR Phase I, 1 Phase II, AFWERX Spark, county pilots.

### Valuation ladder

| Horizon | Trigger | Enterprise value |
|---------|---------|------------------|
| **Today** | Live platform, pre-revenue, SBIR pipeline, MPP in progress | **$3–5M** |
| **~Year 1** | First paid pilots; ~$300–500K revenue | **$5–10M** |
| **~Year 5** | ~$3–8M ARR | **$25–50M** |
| **~Year 10** | ~$10M ARR | **$80–150M** |

### Years 1–3 revenue ROM

| Stream | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|--------|----|----|-----|
| SBIR Phase I (2–3) | $610–915K | $610–915K | $610–915K |
| AFWERX Spark OTA | $250K | $250K | $250K |
| SBIR Phase II | — | $2M | $2M |
| STTR | $305K | $305K | $305K |
| EOC SaaS (early) | — | $100K | $500K |
| **ROM total** | **~$1.2M** | **~$3.2M** | **~$3.6M** |

---

## Moderate model (base / plan case)

### What must be true

1. **SBIR Phase II → Phase III** sole-source path on at least one topic (DDIL, C-UAS, or cyber-DDIL).
2. **Guard entrenchment** — Texas (or 1–2 states) DSCA SOP references ODRA; **5–10 Guard units** on annual license.
3. **Civilian lane** — **2–3 state EOC** licenses + **50–150 county** SaaS customers.
4. **MPP** — protégé delivery on prime sub contracts; past performance accumulates.
5. **OTA prototype** — **$1–10M** award (AFWERX Spark → follow-on or Army/ACC open solicitation).

### 5-year revenue: **$40–80M**

Matches `docs/canonical/01_market_sizing_methodology.md` **base** SOM scenario.

### Year 10 ARR build (illustrative)

| Lane | Moderate penetration | ARR |
|------|---------------------|-----|
| Guard DSCA | 8–15 units × $1–1.5M/yr | $8–22M |
| State EOC | 3–5 states × $2–4M/yr | $6–20M |
| County/municipal | 100–250 × $75–125K/yr | $8–31M |
| DoD programs | 1–2 Phase III / OTA × $15–40M/yr | $15–80M |
| Federal civilian | 1–2 footprints | $10–25M |
| **Stacked Y10 ARR** | | **~$50–100M** |

### Valuation ladder (moderate)

| Horizon | Trigger | Enterprise value |
|---------|---------|------------------|
| **Year 3** | $5–8M ARR; Phase II + TMD SOP LOI + first OTA | **$40–80M** |
| **Year 5** | $15–25M ARR; Phase III in negotiation; 2 states | **$150–300M** |
| **Year 10** | $50–100M ARR; renewal + displacement moat | **$500M–$1.2B** |

---

## Aggressive model (upside — milestone-gated)

### What must be true

Everything in **moderate**, plus:

1. **ODRA becomes policy** in **3+ states** and referenced in **federal program SOWs**.
2. **MPP/prime** distributes ISS layer on **$50M+** program vehicles.
3. **STRATFI** or equivalent **$50–250M** bridge award.

### Year 10 ARR: **$400M–$1B** (category winner)

See prior lane build at national scale — 40+ Guard units, 25+ states, 500+ counties, multiple DoD production programs.

### Valuation ladder (aggressive)

| Horizon | Trigger | Enterprise value |
|---------|---------|------------------|
| **Year 5** | $50–80M ARR or $100M+ program anchor | **$500M–$1B** |
| **Year 10** | $400M–$1B ARR; mandated decision layer | **$5–15B** |

### 5-year revenue: **$80–150M+**

Matches market-sizing **upside** SOM scenario.

---

## Pre-seed ask (all models)

**$500K–$1.5M SAFE** — CMMC L1, FedRAMP Tailored path, BD/capture, co-founder hire.

**Not for R&D** — SBIR/STTR/OTA fund science; equity funds **capture and scale**.

---

## Revision history

| Date | Change |
|------|--------|
| 2026-06-12 | Initial — dual model |
| 2026-06-12 | Rev 2 — **moderate** column added; bridges conservative→aggressive for funder credibility |