{"ok":true,"version":"2026-06-11","methodology":"/market-sizing","methodologyDoc":"docs/canonical/01_market_sizing_methodology.md","asOf":"June 2026","segments":[{"id":"dod-mission-software","label":"DoD mission software, C2, DDIL, fusion & interoperability","annualLowUsdB":33,"annualHighUsdB":43,"pointEstimateUsdB":36.4,"formula":"FY26 DoD IT/Cyberspace Activities ($66.1B) × mission-relevant share (50–65%) = $33.1B–$42.9B; point estimate uses 55% = $36.4B","sources":[{"label":"OSD FY26 IT/CA Budget Overview (Tab A)","url":"https://www.cape.osd.mil/content/SNAPIT/files/FY26/TAB%20A_FY26PB%20ITCA%20Budget%20Overview--Final.pdf"},{"label":"DefenseScoop — CJADC2 Mission Command Applications FY27 $2B+","url":"https://defensescoop.com/2026/05/28/dod-fy27-budget-cjadc2-maven-smart-system-palantir/"}],"notes":"Excludes pure business-systems IT (payroll, ERP). Includes COP, mission apps, cyber ops tooling, edge software, synthesis layers. FY27 C-UAS ($20.6B request) is additive demand signal but largely hardware/effectors — not double-counted here."},{"id":"federal-em-homeland","label":"Federal civilian EM, FEMA, DHS & homeland operations","annualLowUsdB":8,"annualHighUsdB":12,"pointEstimateUsdB":10,"formula":"FEMA FY26 gross BA (~$36.2B) × platform/modernization-relevant share (~25–30%) + DHS ops/grant flows addressable to EOC/COP software ≈ $8B–$12B","sources":[{"label":"FEMA FY26 Congressional Budget Justification","url":"https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/25_0613_fema_fy26-congressional-budget-justificatin.pdf"},{"label":"CRS — Understanding the FY2026 DHS Budget Request (R48704)","url":"https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48704"}],"notes":"Includes preparedness grants (~$3B+), FEMA ops modernization, CISA-adjacent tooling, Safer Skies state/local C-UAS grants ($500M program)."},{"id":"state-local-em","label":"State & local EM, EOC, event & critical-infrastructure protection","annualLowUsdB":15,"annualHighUsdB":25,"pointEstimateUsdB":18,"formula":"US share of global incident & emergency management market (~$142B global × ~45% US ≈ $64B total incident spend) × software/platform/solutions slice (~25–35%) ≈ $16B–$22B; conservative floor $15B","sources":[{"label":"Fortune Business Insights — Incident & Emergency Management Market 2025","url":"https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/incident-and-emergency-management-market-101062"},{"label":"WiseGuy Reports — Emergency Management Software Market 2025","url":"https://www.wiseguyreports.com/reports/emergency-management-software-market"}],"notes":"3,143 counties + ~19,000 municipalities + 50 state EOCs + tribal nations + utilities/ports/schools/event venues. Stafford Act and PA documentation requirements drive platform spend."},{"id":"guard-dsca","label":"National Guard DSCA dual-use overlap","annualLowUsdB":3,"annualHighUsdB":5,"pointEstimateUsdB":4,"formula":"54 states/territories × $55M–$90M blended annual dual-use license potential = $3.0B–$4.9B","sources":[{"label":"NGR 500-1 / ANGI 10-8101 — Guard domestic ops & AAR doctrine","url":"https://www.ngb.army.mil/"}],"notes":"Overlaps partially with DoD and state/local segments; included as distinct buyer lane (Adjutant General / TAG procurement)."}],"rollup":{"tam":{"label":"TAM — Total Addressable Market (annual, US)","lowUsdB":60,"highUsdB":95,"pointEstimateUsdB":68.4,"formula":"Sum of segment point estimates with overlap haircut: ($36.4 + $10 + $18 + $4) × 0.92 overlap factor ≈ $63B; published band $60B–$95B brackets segment uncertainty","bullCaseUsdB":100,"bullCaseNote":"FY27 DoD counter-UAS request ($20.6B) and autonomy/counter-drone portfolio ($70B+ combined) accelerate software-layer demand beyond base IT share."},"sam":{"label":"SAM — Serviceable Addressable Market (annual, US)","lowUsdB":8,"highUsdB":15,"pointEstimateUsdB":11.5,"formula":"(SDVOSB FY25 prime awards $28.6B × 50% domain-relevant NAICS) + (state/local TAM $18B × 20% obtainable without classified networks) × 0.75 overlap discount ≈ $11.5B","sources":[{"label":"Fed-Spend — SDVOSB Contract Opportunities FY2025 ($28.6B)","url":"https://fed-spend.com/blog/sdvosb-contract-opportunities-veteran-owned-2026"}],"filters":["Unclassified / SBIR-OTA-STTR / SDVOSB-eligible","Dual-use EM + defense synthesis layer","No prime incumbency lock on Maven/Foundry-class enterprise suites"]},"som":{"label":"SOM — 5-Year Company Revenue Obtainable (ISS capture, not market size)","scenarios":[{"id":"conservative","label":"Conservative — SBIR / OTA only","fiveYearLowUsdM":15,"fiveYearHighUsdM":40,"triggers":["2–3 SBIR Phase I","1 Phase II","AFWERX Spark OTA","Early county EOC pilots"]},{"id":"base","label":"Base — Phase III + multi-state EM","fiveYearLowUsdM":40,"fiveYearHighUsdM":80,"triggers":["Phase III sole-source","2–3 state EOC licenses","1 Guard DSCA SOP adoption","OTA prototype $1M–$10M"]},{"id":"upside","label":"Upside — STRATFI / multi-state scale","fiveYearLowUsdM":80,"fiveYearHighUsdM":150,"triggers":["STRATFI bridge ($50M–$250M program)","Multi-state EM SaaS","Production C-UAS software layer awards"]}]}},"sdvosbPool":{"fy2025PrimeAwardsUsdB":28.6,"dodShareUsdB":12.8,"dhsShareUsdB":2.1,"soleSourceThresholdUsdM":5,"source":"https://fed-spend.com/blog/sdvosb-contract-opportunities-veteran-owned-2026"},"budgetSignals":[{"label":"DoD IT / Cyberspace Activities (FY26)","amountUsdB":66.1,"source":"OSD FY26 IT/CA Overview"},{"label":"Mission Command Applications / CJADC2 (FY27 request)","amountUsdB":2,"source":"DefenseScoop / DoD FY27 budget materials"},{"label":"Counter-Unmanned Systems C-UXS (FY27 request)","amountUsdB":20.6,"source":"DoD FY27 Budget Overview Book"},{"label":"FEMA gross budget authority (FY26)","amountUsdB":36.2,"source":"FEMA FY26 CBJ"},{"label":"SDVOSB prime contract awards (FY25)","amountUsdB":28.6,"source":"Fed-Spend FY2025 federal contracting report"}],"replication":{"tam":"TAM = Σ(segment point estimates), overlap-adjusted; publish conservative band [60, 95] USD billions","sam":"SAM = (SDVOSB_pool × domain_relevance) + (state_local_TAM × obtainable_share) × overlap_discount","som":"SOM = 5-year ISS revenue capture by scenario — NOT annual market size"}}